(Photo: Chad Ryan/Fighting Irish Preview)
The Five Biggest Threats to the Irish’s National Championship Dream
I’ve never seen preseason expectations for a Notre Dame football team quite like these.
This fall marks the 30th season of Fighting Irish Preview, and in all those years I can’t remember the Irish entering a season with more national championship expectations than they have today. My Notre Dame memory goes back much further than those 30 years.
I’m old enough to remember the national championship seasons of 1966, 1973 and 1977. And, of course, I vividly remember 1988, when Lou Holtz’s Irish went 12-0, beat No. 1 Miami in one of the greatest games ever played at Notre Dame Stadium and finished the job against West Virginia in the Fiesta Bowl.
That was 38 years ago.
There have been some outstanding Notre Dame teams since then. We’ve seen undefeated regular seasons, College Football Playoff appearances and another trip to the national championship game.
But we haven’t seen another national championship.
That’s what makes 2026 different.
Notre Dame isn’t entering this season as a team that could win the national championship if everything falls into place. The Irish are expected to win one.
According to ESPN’s current futures odds, Notre Dame and Ohio State share the shortest odds to win the national championship at +600.
Let that sink in for a moment.
Notre Dame isn’t trying to convince anyone it belongs in the championship conversation. Vegas has already put the Irish there.
So who stands in the way?
Let’s take a look at the five teams most likely to keep Notre Dame from ending a 38-year championship drought.
Ohio State (+600)
2025 Record: 12-2
Preseason Rank: No. 1
Head Coach: Ryan Day
Returning QB: Julian Sayin
Let’s start with the obvious one.
Ohio State is loaded. Again.
The Buckeyes finished 12-2 last season and open 2026 ranked No. 1 in the preseason Coaches Poll. They also happen to be tied with Notre Dame atop the national championship odds.
Quarterback Julian Sayin returns after throwing for more than 3,600 yards and 32 touchdowns while completing an eye-popping 77 percent of his passes.
Then you remember who he’s throwing to.
Jeremiah Smith may be the best player in college football, regardless of position.
Smith caught 87 passes for 1,243 yards and 12 touchdowns last season. Through just two seasons, he has already piled up 163 receptions, 2,558 receiving yards and 27 touchdowns. He’s still only a junior.
Sophomore running back Bo Jackson also returns after rushing for more than 1,000 yards as a freshman and looks ready for an even bigger role.
Ohio State has some questions defensively after losing several stars, but Ryan Day still has future NFL players throughout the roster.
If Notre Dame wins the national championship, there’s a very good chance Ohio State will be one of the teams it has to beat.
Texas (+750)
2025 Record: 10-3
Preseason Rank: No. 4
Head Coach: Steve Sarkisian
Returning QB: Arch Manning
It feels like we’ve been talking about Arch Manning forever.
Truth be told, it’s fun talking about him. My boys grew up watching Peyton Manning lead the Colts, and we even named our family dog Peyton.
So yes, all things being equal, it’s hard not to root for another Manning.
Just not this year.
Manning’s first season as Texas’ full-time starter wasn’t perfect. The Longhorns missed the College Football Playoff, but he still threw for more than 3,100 yards, accounted for 36 total touchdowns and looked better as the season progressed.
Texas also returns one of the nation’s premier defensive players in Colin Simmons and added explosive receiver Cam Coleman through the transfer portal. Steve Sarkisian has assembled another roster capable of winning it all.
If Arch Manning takes the next step, Texas immediately becomes one of Notre Dame’s biggest obstacles.
Oregon (+800)
2025 Record: 13-2
Preseason Rank: No. 2
Head Coach: Dan Lanning
Returning QB: Dante Moore
Here’s another team I wouldn’t want to see in January.
Oregon went 13-2 last season and is an astonishing 26-3 over the past two years.
Dan Lanning has built Oregon into one of college football’s elite programs.
Now comes the hard part: winning the whole thing.
The biggest reason many believe this could be Oregon’s year is Dante Moore.
Moore is no stranger to Notre Dame fans. He was the Irish’s top quarterback target in the 2023 recruiting class and, for a time, appeared destined for South Bend. Then came one of the biggest recruiting twists of the Marcus Freeman era, sending Moore first to Oregon, then UCLA and ultimately back to Eugene.
Now, instead of leading Notre Dame, he could be one of the biggest obstacles standing in its way.
After a stellar 2025 season, Moore bypassed the NFL Draft and returned to Oregon after throwing for more than 3,500 yards and finishing among the national leaders in passing efficiency.
The Ducks also return an experienced defense and another roster loaded with NFL talent. There are questions on the offensive line and with a revamped coaching staff, but Dan Lanning has built a program that belongs in every national championship conversation.
Notre Dame fans have followed Dante Moore’s career for years. There’s still a chance the biggest chapter hasn’t been written yet.
Georgia (+800)
2025 Record: 12-2
Preseason Rank: No. 3
Head Coach: Kirby Smart
Returning QB: Gunner Stockton
Georgia at +800 almost feels like a bargain.
Every year Georgia loses a truckload of NFL talent, and every year Kirby Smart replaces it with another truckload of future NFL players.
That’s why the Bulldogs never seem to go away.
Quarterback Gunner Stockton returns after gaining valuable SEC experience last season, while linebacker CJ Allen anchors another fast, physical Georgia defense.
The Bulldogs haven’t won a national championship since 2022. For almost every program in America, that wouldn’t qualify as much of a drought.
At Georgia, expectations are different.
Until somebody consistently knocks Kirby Smart off the mountain, Georgia belongs on every list like this one.
Indiana (+900)
2025 Record: 16-0 (National Champion)
Preseason Rank: No. 6
Head Coach: Curt Cignetti
Returning QB: Josh Hoover (TCU transfer)
I’m still not sure we’ve fully processed what happened in Bloomington last season.
Indiana went 16-0 and won the national championship.
Read that sentence again.
Indiana.
And yes, I admit I’m a little biased. I’m a proud Indiana University graduate. For most of my life, a successful Hoosier football season meant finishing around .500 and, if things really went well, beating Purdue.
That’s why what Curt Cignetti has accomplished almost defies belief.
Now comes the difficult part: replacing Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza.
Fortunately for the Hoosiers, former TCU quarterback Josh Hoover arrives with nearly 10,000 career passing yards and plenty of experience. Receiver Elijah Sarratt gives Hoover an elite target, and Cignetti has proven he knows exactly how to build a roster through the transfer portal.
Two years ago, I wouldn’t have believed Indiana belonged anywhere near this conversation.
Now?
I’m done doubting Curt Cignetti.
He’s 27-2 in two seasons.
Last year’s national champion doesn’t get ignored just because the helmet says “Indiana.”
So Where Does That Leave Notre Dame?
Ohio State has Sayin and Smith. Texas has Manning. Oregon has Moore. Georgia has Kirby Smart. Indiana is the defending national champion.
That’s quite a list.
And here’s what should excite every Notre Dame fan.
Not one of those teams has better odds to win the national championship than the Irish.
For much of the past 30 years, the question entering a season was whether Notre Dame could fight its way into the national championship conversation.
That’s no longer the question, the Irish are already there.
For those of us who remember 1966, 1973, 1977 and 1988, we know what it looks like when Notre Dame stands on top of college football.
It’s been a long wait.
Thirty-eight years, to be exact.
Vegas believes Marcus Freeman has assembled the team capable of ending that wait.
Now comes the hard part.
Proving Vegas right.