(Photo: David John Griffin-Icon Sportswire)
Thirteen-year head coach Dave Doeren’s North Carolina State Wolfpack enter this week at 4-2, coming off a dominant 56-10 win over FCS Campbell. NC State boasts a solid victory over #19 Virginia, 35-31 in Week 2, proving they can compete with ranked opponents. Their two losses this season came against Virginia Tech and Duke.
In 2023, in their last match-up, Notre Dame defeated the Wolfpack 45-24 in Raleigh, a game highlighted by Audric Estimé’s 80-yard touchdown run on the first play after an extended weather delay.
Offensively, NC State has been productive and efficient, ranking 31st nationally in total offense (447.7 yds/game) with a balanced attack — 26th in passing (282.3 yds/game) and 62nd in rushing (165.3 yds/game).
Quarterback C.J. Bailey, a 6-6, 210-pound sophomore, has been the offensive centerpiece. He’s completed 138 of 185 passes (74.6%) for 1,660 yards and 13 touchdowns, with only four interceptions, though he’s been sacked nine times. Bailey’s size, composure, and accuracy have been the difference in several close wins.
The Wolfpack’s ground game features the second leading rusher in the nation, and defensing ACC running back of the week, Hollywood Smothers. He leads the team with 693 yards (6.9 avg) and 5 touchdowns, that translates to an impressive 116 yards per game. Jayden Scott is a nice compliment and he has added 196 yards and 3 scores. Bailey contributes as a runner as well, with 78 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns.
Through the air, Bailey’s top targets include Terrell Anderson (21 receptions, 388 yards, 3 TDs), tight end Justin Joly (28 receptions, 256 yards, 3 TDs), and Wesley Grimes (14 receptions, 243 yards, 1 TD). The Wolfpack rank 24th nationally in team passing efficiency (162.3), with Bailey spreading the ball to a deep and versatile receiving corps.
Defensively, NC State has been inconsistent, ranking 77th in total defense (375.0 yds/game) and 77th in scoring defense (25.0 ppg). The strength of the unit lies in its linebackers, led by Caden Fordham, who tops the team with 59 tackles and 1.5 sacks, and Sean Brown, who has 44 stops. Cian Slone has added 28 tackles and an interception, while up front, Sabastian Harsh has been disruptive with 2.5 sacks. In the secondary, Ronnie Royal III has an interception and 24 tackles, giving the Wolfpack some playmaking ability on the back end.
However, the Wolfpack defense have struggled to get off the field, ranking 111th nationally in third-down defense (44.1%). The Wolfpack turnover margin (-0.67) ranks 111th, an area that has cost them in tight games. Special teams have been hit or miss — 79th in net punting and 95th in kickoff returns.
Notre Dame enters this matchup with momentum and a defense that has rediscovered its identity —and it is playing fast and with confidence. Even if CJ Carr isn’t perfect again and we expect him to play well against a middling Wolfpack defense, the Irish will be able to run the football, in fact if you want, just pencil that into every “101” article for the rest of season because the Love and Price show is not going away. With the Irish defense surging, and the offense full of weapons this matchup tilts decisively toward the Irish. Look for ND to pick off another pass, or two., and to win comfortably.
The over/under is 59.5 and the Irish are 21.5 point favorites.
The Fighting Irish Preview Prediction: Notre Dame 42, North Carolina State 17