(Photo Credit: Chad Ryan)
Marcus Freeman teams just can’t stand prosperity, and the troubling trend that has marked his 29 game tenure all but made the stunning loss to Northern Illinois predictable. Last year after the Irish lost badly to Louisville, Fighting Irish Preview chronicled the boom or bust cycle that has marked Notre Dame football since Freeman took over. (Boom or Bust: It’s the Freeman Way ).
In summary, for every big win or good performance the Irish have had it has been followed up, by a letdown. Play well against Ohio State in 2022, lose to Marshall the next week. Right that ship with three straight wins, then lose to Stanford. Then, come back a couple weeks later with a dominant win over #5 Clemson. The week after that, blow out Navy 35-0 in the first half, collapse in the 2nd half to limp to a 35-32 win. Blow out Boston College, lose to USC, then defeat South Carolina in the Gator Bowl. Open 2023 with four straight wins, Boom! Follow that up with coaching malpractice to give away the Ohio State game. Bust! It goes on, find a way to beat Duke, then get blown out by Louisville. Whip Southern Cal, fail to show up at Clemson , then win the next three.
Boom, bust, boom, bust, boom, bust……I believe a trend is evident.
Well, add this: beat Texas A&M on the road, BOOM, follow that up with the worst BUST yet. On Saturday, Notre Dame became the first top- 5 team in 51 attempts to lose to a Mid- American Conference team in history.
The first clue of the latest bust, may have come just minutes after the triumphant win over A&M. Sure it was a throwaway comment, but Freeman really did say postgame, “I don’t even know who we play next week”. Well I’ve been covering football about as long as Freeman has been alive, when I heard that comment, I cringed. Not exactly an indication that the Irish would be ready for the Huskies.
They weren’t.
As Fighting Irish Preview stated on several occasions last week, “expect a letdown” this week. It’s human nature, you can’t be razor sharp every game. But you can manage the tendency. Great coaches do it every season. Winning big games, can make you great and lead to championships, but you don’t either if you don’t win the games you are supposed to.
Preparation is always the key. Notre Dame, on Saturday, was not prepared.
Riley Leonard, blocked field goals, a less than stellar punting game, and the defense’s inability to get off the field. The Irish have issues.
The quarterback position is foremost among them. Leonard looked like he was playing hurt on Saturday as evidenced by no planned runs in the second half. So, is Steve Angeli the answer? If Leonard is banged up and can’t run the ball, I don’t think there is any doubt. But even if he is healthy, passing accuracy has been in question for Leonard since he was injured last season. Leonard’s really bad underthrow of an open Kris Mitchell that was intercepted, directly led to ND’s loss.
To put a finer point on it, Saturday was the worst loss against the spread that ND has had since 1995.
That year, ND lost as another 28 point favorite to Northwestern, 17-15. Northwestern went to the Rose Bowl that season, by the way. This season, Northern Illinois is likely the second best team in the MAC. The best team in the MAC? Look ahead at ND’s schedule. Miami of Ohio cames to South Bend in two weeks.
But back to the QB issue. Remember 2018? Brandon Wimbush that season was a dual threat quarterback, just like Leonard. Wimbush led the Irish to a season opening upset of Michigan and a 4-0 record, but his passing accuracy was spotty at best. And then a funny thing happened, Brian Kelly surprised the world. Despite the fact that the Irish were sporting a perfect slate, Wimbush was benched and Ian Book walked on the field to lead the Irish in game five. The Irish never looked back. Book went on to lead ND to a 12-0 record and the College Football Playoff.
Say what you will about Brian Kelly, but he found a way to win the games he was supposed to.
Post debacle Saturday, Freeman all but confirmed the boom/but history of the team, “I’ve been here,We’ve been here before, right?….now it’s time to get it fixed.”
Note to Marcus Freeman: Hey, Steve Angeli is a 77.3% passer. He looked brilliant as a starter in the Sun Bowl victory. He has thrown 7 career touchdowns passes. After two games, Riley Leonard has yet to throw a TD pass.
Hmmm….might this tidbit of information bring to mind a “fix”?
I thought it might.
Freeman’s era as head coach has been a lesson in fan loyalty whiplash. Indeed, Marcus Freeman has shown the ability to fix things, but just for a few games, before the inevitable bust. But the good news is, Notre Dame’s “boom-bust” behavior under Freeman suggests that as the Irish head to West Lafayette this week: Boilermakers beware!