(Photo: Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)
The story has been told a zillion times, but just to review, here it is one more time.
Indiana University first year head Coach Curt Cignetti has engineered an amazing turnaround in the Hoosier program this year. In the three seasons prior to his arrival, IU had posted a combined record of 9-27, winning only two Big Ten games.
After several stints as an offensive assistant, including three seasons under Nick Saban at Alabama, Cignetti embarked on a head coaching career at the age of 50. Starting in Division II, he moved on to Elon University, and then to James Madison University, where he spent five seasons. At James Madison, his teams went 54-10. He arrived in Bloomington last November 30, following the firing of Tom Allen. He brought along much of his James Madison staff, and rapidly changed the culture.
Cignetti brought in 31 transfers via the portal, many from James Madison. He brought in former MAC Conference player of the year at Ohio University, QB Kurtis Rourke. The team underwent a total transformation combining those transfers with a few inherited IU bred starters to quickly gel.
With this rapidly constructed team, the Hoosiers reeled off 10 straight wins, mostly by large margins. Going into their game 11 match-up at #2 Ohio State, they had reached #5 in the College Football Rankings. Despite taking the early lead in that game, the Hoosiers made some critical mistakes and Ohio State took control of the game in the second half cruising to a 38-15 win.
IU finished off the regular season with a 66-0 stomping of archrival Purdue to finish the regular season 11-1. In their 11 victories, they came out ahead by an average margin of 33.4 points. Their final CFP ranking was 8th and that earned them a #10 seed.
Cignetti’s remarkable success this season and “in your face”, confident persona has prompted at least one observer (me) to refer to him as “Bobby Knight reincarnated as a football coach”.
For the season, the Hoosiers are highly ranked in many national categories on both sides of the football. QB Rourke and a group of outstanding receivers led the team to a #1 ranking in team passing efficiency. Rourke is a 70.4% passer, he has thrown for 2827 yards and 27 TDs against just four interceptions. Eight receivers had double-digit receptions, with Elijah Sarratt leading the way (49 catches, 8 TDs), followed by Ke’shawn Williams (34 catches, 5 TDs) and Omar Cooper Jr. (27 catches, 6 TDs).
The Hoosier’s #2 ranked scoring offense has put up 43.3 points per game. In addition to Rourke’s passing, they boast two outstanding running backs in Justin Ellison who has run for an 5.5 yard average and 811 yards and 10 touchdowns and Ty Son Lawton who average 4.8 yards good for 634 yards and 12 TDs.
The team leaned heavily on the passing game, accounting for over 60% of their yardage through the air. While Rourke has not been a running threat, the Hoosiers ranked #3 nationally in red zone scoring
Indiana’s national dominance extends to defense. They ranked #1 in rushing defense, #2 in total defense, and #6 in scoring defense, allowing just 14.7 points per game. The Hoosiers were also +14 in turnovers, with 13 interceptions and eight fumble recoveries. Edge rusher Mikal Kamara (6-1, 265 lbs) has been a terror, with 10 sacks, two forced fumbles, and three fumble recoveries. Linebacker Aiden Fisher (6-1, 233 lbs) led the team in tackles with 108, while defensive back D’Angelo Ponds led the team with nine passes defended. All three defensive standouts followed Cignetti from James Madison.
These numbers paint an impressive picture of a high achieving, well coached team. One other number however is pertinent. IU’s schedule was tailor made for assisting in this team’s turnaround. Their strength of schedule is ranked 67th. They played eight of their games at home. Their Big Ten schedule allowed them to avoid Oregon, Penn State, Iowa, USC, and Illinois, teams with a combined record of 47-15. They defeated 7-5 Michigan at home, and lost on the road Ohio State by 23. Six other teams they defeated had a combined record of 31-53.
There is little doubt that Indiana is a very productive, well coached, motivated football team. They have demonstrated a much more consistently better passing offense then the Irish. That said Notre Dame is favored for a reason. Despite their loss to Northern Illinois, Notre Dame has played and mostly dominated a more difficult schedule, not more difficult by a lot, but the Irish will come into this one as a more battle hardened group.
Playing on December 20th at home at night in South Bend, Indiana works to Notre Dame’s advantage in more ways than one. Of course the home field is worth a few points, but the comparative styles of offense would give the Irish an edge on what will likely be a cold and breezy (read: miserable) winter night in a place that late-effect snow can hit at any moment. Such conditions favor running teams and make passing team’s jobs more difficult. ND’s three headed monster of Jeremyah Love, Jadarian Price, and Riley Leonard, will give the Irish an advantage in what will most likely be difficult weather conditions.
As well coached as IU obviously is, Notre Dame’s staff has pushed a lot of the right buttons this season as well. Since the Northern Illinois debacle ND has been a highly motivated team on a mission. In fact I think the argument can be made that the NIU loss has been beneficial Notre Dame.
Notre Dame overall has better athletes. I call this the bigger, stronger, faster factor. Indiana has largely avoided major injuries this season, and that has been a good thing for them because it can be argued that their broader roster would not have withstood the loss of key players like ND who has withstood the loss of Jordan Bothello, Ashton Craig, Charles Jagusauh, Boubacar Traore and Ben Morrison. ND simply has more and better athletes, more 4-stars, more big game experience and particularly more speed. Coaching can make a 2 and 3-star laden team productive, Kurt Cignetti and his staff have done exactly that. They have squeezed just about all the production possible out of Indiana this season, and they will be ready for ND. The bet here though is that great coaching, which ND has in their own right, will do the same for the Irish, a team with overall better talent. The fact that IU struggled against Michigan (particularly in the 2nd half), and lost big to Ohio State, two “bigger, stronger, faster” teams, helps to demonstrate this point.
There is every reason to believe that Notre Dame, with a couple of weeks to prepare, on their home field, will be able to exploit their talent advantage.
A concern for Notre Dame certainly has to be raised regarding their field goal game. Kicker, Mitch Jeter who has struggled with an injury for the second half of the season is a poor 6 of 12. Since his injury against Stanford, he is 1-5, that’s bad. Backups have not been effective either, they are 2-6. This lack of FG production has not bit the Irish this season, yet. The hope for the Irish is that given the time off since the USC game, ND and Jeter will have gotten their FG goal game together, if not, it could well cost them.
In summary, weather, home-field advantage, and superior talent favor Notre Dame. Field goal struggles and the turnover battle could play a role, but the Irish have enough advantages to advance to a Sugar Bowl matchup with #2 seed Georgia on January 1st.
Notre Dame is a 7.5 point favorite and the over/under is 51.5
The Fighting Irish Preview Pick: Notre Dame 31-Indiana 24