Penn State, led by 11th-season head coach James Franklin, is 13-2. Their losses both came against eventual College Football Playoff teams. In October, they fell in a close game to Ohio State, 20-13, and later lost to Oregon in the Big Ten title game, 45-37. During the regular season, they achieved only one ranked victory, defeating #19 Illinois, 21-7. In their playoff path to the Orange Bowl, they dominated SMU, 38-10, and last week Boise State, 31-14. Back in October, they won at USC, their only common opponent with ND, in an overtime thriller, 33-30.
The Nittany Lions are a well-rounded football team, boasting the #5 scoring defense, #2 red zone offense, and the #25 scoring offense, averaging 34.5 points per game. They lean slightly more heavily on the run and excel at protecting the football.
Junior quarterback Drew Allar leads the offense and is completing 67.5% of his passes. He has thrown for 3,192 yards and 24 touchdowns against 7 interceptions. A physical presence at 6-5, 238 pounds, Allar is also a threat on the ground with 285 rushing yards and six touchdowns. His favorite target is tight end Tyler Warren. The Mackey award winner has had a monster season: 98 catches, 1,158 yards, and 8 touchdowns. Penn State lines Warren up all over the field, including end arounds and using him as the point man in the wildcat formation.
Penn State’s ground attack is powered by two 1,000-yard rushers, Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. Singleton, a former Notre Dame recruit, averages 6.5 yards per carry and has scored 9 touchdowns. Allen averages 5.1 yards per carry and has scored 8 touchdowns.
The defense is led by a game-wrecker whose status for the game is uncertain due to an arm injury sustained against Boise State. Defensive end Abdoul Carter has recorded 11 sacks and forced two fumbles this season. Head coach James Franklin was noncommittal on Carter’s availability this week, simply saying, “We’ll see.” Safety Jaylen Reed has also had a standout season, leading the team with 92 tackles and tying for the team lead with three interceptions. Overall, Penn State has 39 sacks, the #16 best mark in the country.
In the turnover department, Penn State has been impressive, with a +10 turnover margin. For comparison, Georgia was +2 and gave up two more turnovers to the Irish. For comparison purposes, Notre Dame is +18, one of the best marks in the country.
Penn State is a well-rounded team trending upward, particularly on offense in their last two games. The availability of Abdoul Carter on defense will make a difference—while Penn State has other playmakers, none match Carter’s stature. Offensively, Penn State is likely to gain yards on the ground, but controlling the big and talented Tyler Warren will be crucial. Look for Jack Kiser and/or Jayden Ausberry toplay a key roles in this area. Ausberry’s skillset is ideal for the job and Kiser has been strong in pass coverage, but hasn’t faced many tight ends quite like Warren.
Analyzing the Sugar Bowl in hindsight was an easy call, and Fighting Irish Preview nailed it: turnovers and special teams spelled doom for Georgia. Penn State, however, does not show andy obvious vulnerabilities. Still, there are a couple of factors in Notre Dame’s favor.
Penn State has allowed three blocked kicks and one blocked punt this season. Additionally, they have only been average at defending kickoff returns. National Special Teams Coach of the Year Marty Biagi has undoubtedly noted these weaknesses. Hello, Bryce Young, and Jayden Harrison—might you have an encore in you?
Furthermore, I’ll take Marcus Freeman and his staff over James Franklin and his crew. Expect more creativity from Biagi on special teams and an overall coaching advantage on the Irish sideline that should be worth points on game day.
Vegas has the Irish as a 2-point favorite, with the over/under set at 45.5.
Fighting Irish Preview Pick:
Notre Dame 30, Penn State 24