(Photo: Icon Sportswire)
Ohio State enters this matchup with a 13-2 record. Their two losses came against Michigan in their regular-season finale, 13-10, and mid-season at Oregon, 32-31. In the College Football Playoff, the Buckeyes have been dominant, defeating Tennessee 42-17, avenging their loss to Oregon 41-21, and beating Texas 28-14 last week.
The Buckeyes share three common opponents with the Irish. On November 9, they routed Purdue 45-0, and on November 23, they handled Indiana 38-15. On they defeated Penn state
Just as Notre Dame has used their loss to Northern Illinois as a rallying cry, Ohio State’s $20 million NIL roster has been motivated by their regular season ending loss to Michigan. The Buckeyes are loaded with NFL talent. Their star-studded lineup features 14 five-star players. That compares to Notre Dame’s one.
Ohio State boasts the nation’s #1 scoring defense and total defense. They excel at controlling the clock and are averaging 35.8 points per game, just behind Notre Dame’s 37.
Quarterback Will Howard, a transfer from Kansas State, has been exceptional, completing 72.6% of his passes for 3,779 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He is also a threat on the ground, with nine rushing touchdowns.
The Buckeyes’ wide receiver corps is, as always, stacked. Freshman sensation Jeremiah Smith has 71 receptions for 1,227 yards and 14 touchdowns. While Texas managed to hold him to just one catch for three yards last week, Ohio State has other weapons. Carnell Tate and Emeka Egbuka are more than capable of stepping up.
In the backfield, Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson have combined for nearly 2,000 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns, powering Ohio State’s 66th-ranked ground game.
On defense, the Buckeyes are mostly a zone team that has a tremendous defensive line. Both Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau are game wrecker defensive ends. Sawyer delivered an 83-yard scoop-and-score to seal the Texas game and has nine sacks this season, while Tuimoloau leads the team with 11 sacks. Overall, Ohio State has racked up an impressive 51 sacks.
While their defense is formidable, the Buckeyes are just +4 in turnover margin, compared to the Irish, who boast a stellar +17.
Despite the eight-point spread, Notre Dame is poised to compete in this game. The Irish are on a 13-game winning streak and have built an unparalleled team culture. Ohio State has shown vulnerability. Will Howard can be prone to interceptions, and their loss to Michigan, along with Texas nearly tying the game in it’s waning moments last week, proves they aren’t invincible.
The Irish will have to find a way to run the football against that defensive front. And the key to that will be a quick short passing game. That is just the kind of passing game that Riley Leonard has shown he can excel at. If that happens, holes should appear for Jeremiyah Love, Jadarin Price and Aneyas Williams. With the receiving skills he has demonstrated –18 catches for 174 yards on the season– Williams can also serve as a key to success in the short passing game.
For Notre Dame, another question is whether they can absorb yet another key injury—this time to left tackle Anthonie Knapp. Fortunately the Irish have some experienced options. They are likely to plug in Charles Jagusah, who has returned from an August injury and was initially slated to play left tackle. Veteran Tosh Baker, who performed admirably in relief duty against Penn State and experienced sophomore Sam Pendleton are ready options, particularly if right guard Rocco Spindler cannot play effectively with the injury that has limited him the last few weeks.
This game may well come down to the intangibles, as big games often do. If it stays close going into the 4th quarter, be ready to celebrate.
Ohio State is an 8-point favorite, and the over/under is set at 45.5.
The Fighting Irish Preview Pick:
Notre Dame 24, Ohio State 23