(Photo: Mark Goldman/Icon Sportwire)
6-0, 24th-ranked Navy is good. Really good.
This is not your father’s Naval Academy football team. Navy’s #4 ranked option oriented rushing attack can control the clock, limit possessions, and grind you into submission. Just ask Brian Kelly in 2016 about how that can happen.
But wait, there’s more—because the Midshipmen offense is also ranked #2 nationally in passing efficiency!
Navy does not pass often (just 12 times per game on average), but they do it well. Last week against Charlotte, Navy scored seven touchdowns en route to a 51-17 rout. Two of those TDs were scored by the defense, two on the ground, and three through the air.
Quarterback Blake Horvath, who leads the team in rushing with 621 yards and 10 TDs, is also a 64% passer with 10 TD passes and just one interception. For comparison purposes between Riley Leonard and Steve Angeli, ND was 8 TD passes and 3 interceptions.
This newfangled, explosive Navy offense described as a “millennial, hybrid version of the wing-T”, averages 44.8 points per game (4th nationally). By comparison, Notre Dame is averaging 34.6 ppg. (26th).
Last season, in ND’s season opener in Dublin against the Midshipmen, the Irish pushed the Navy defense all over the field en route to a 42-3 win. Sam Hartman threw four TD passes, and the Irish piled up 444 total yards. This year, despite their undefeated record, the Navy defense is still yielding 389.7 yards per game, which ranks them a lowly 93rd nationally. However, they have been effective in defending the red zone. Navy opponents have penetrated the red zone 19 times this season but have come away with just 8 TDs and 4 field goals. That overall success rate is the 4th best in the nation and has led to them allowing only 19.7 points per game.
Navy, for certain, has not played a schedule quite like ND’s. None of their six victims have been ranked. Their Week 3 opponent, Memphis, was pretty good—they now stand at 6-1—but the other five Navy wins have come against opponents with a combined record of just 10-25. Bucknell, Temple, UAB, Air Force, Charlotte. You get the picture.
Notre Dame’s habit of falling behind early in games this season could well bite them if they are not careful. Option offenses, even Navy’s 2024 evolution of the option, are adept at protecting leads by limiting possessions and controlling the clock. On the other hand, Navy has not seen a defense like Notre Dame’s, nor have they faced an offense as diverse and talented as they will this week.
Navy is playing with a lot of confidence right now, and their successful incorporation of the passing game into their offense is a factor to take note of. To counteract this, the Irish will bring experience on the field and on the coaching staff against the option, which will help to keep Navy’s points down. On offense, ND will have the opportunity to exploit Navy’s defense by bringing more firepower than the Midshipmen have seen at any point during their 6-0 run. Keep an eye on the turnover battle.
Notre Dame is a 12-point favorite, and the over/under is 52.5.
The Fighting Irish Preview Pick: Notre Dame 31, Navy 24