Lincoln Riley’s USC is 6-5. Their so-so record is deceptive. What it reflects mostly is an inability to win close games . They have led in the 4th quarter of every game, their losses have come by 3, 7, 3, 1, and 5 points, a grand total of 19 ponts. Their strength of schedule is ranked the 12th most difficult and they slot in at 18th in the ESPN power index.
Last week the Trojans did find a way to win one in the 4th quarter and they defeated rival UCLA on the road, 19-13. To notch the win USC overcame a flu bug that had afflicted 27 players during the week causing them to miss at least some practice.
Quarterback MIller Moss, started the first nine games of the season and performed reasonably well, but looking for a spark, two weeks ago Lincoln Riley handed the starting job to 6-4, 220 sophomore Jayden Maiava. Maiava has won both his starts. On the year he has competed 64.2% of his passes for 546 yards and four TDs. Apparently he can also run with the ball, but he has not shown much there, so far.
USC is loaded with productive receivers, seven have 20 or more catches. Zachariah Branch has the most among the wideouts at 43, Makai Lemon the most yards at 532 and Ja’kobi Lane the most TDs at six.
The most catches by anyone on the roster though is 47 by running back Woody Marks. Marks is in his COVID year after a stellar career at Mississippi State. During four seasons as a Bulldog, he gained nearly 2,000 yards and 22 touchdowns. This season he is running well again, with 1,100 yards and nine TDs.
Overall the Trojan offense is scoring 29.3 points per game (56th nationally), and gaining 429.7 yards per game (33rd), 285.5 through the air and 144.3 yards on the ground. Their offensive lines have protected the quarterback well and they boast the best punter in the nation in Eddie Zaplicki with a net avearage of 47.2 yards.
After sub-par performances for several years, defensively the Trojans are improved in 2024. Last year the Trojans ranked 118th giving up 34.4 points per-game. To address the situation in the off season Lincoln Riley poached defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn from crosstown UCLA. Lynn has sparked improvement. This season the Trojan national ranks are now middle of the national pack, particularly in the scoring area where they now allowing 21.2 points per game, 32nd best. Their most potent weapon looks to be senior linebacker, Easton Mascarenas-Arnold who leads the team in tackles at 87, and has three sacks and two interceptions. The Trojans as a team have notched just 14 sacks on the year (98th).
This one obviously means a lot to the Irish who have been on a 10 game quest for the postseason since Northern Illinois. The Irish have seemingly managed to ratchet up their motivation to higher levels each week. They are playing with as much confidence right now as any ND team this side of 1988. Southern Cal for their part is loaded with talent and have been close in every game. They are bowl eligible and a win over the Irish would be a nice prize to take into the off season, but the intangibles overall favor the Irish.
On the field, Notre Dame is the more complete team, but don’t expect USC to go quietly. Look for the Irish defense to force a turnover or two and maybe get a score to turn the tide in this one.
Notre Dame is a 7.5 point favorite and the over/under is 51.5
The Fighting Irish Preview Pick: Notre Dame 34-USC 17